Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 21-9 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Evans
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
21
(30 meetings)
9
21
Evans
Duchene
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
16
Evans
Duchene
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
2
Evans
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Evans
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.1%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
56.9% (1,665)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
49.1% (468)
-2.0%
On power play, Evans has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Evans
Duchene
Home
53.4% (2,593)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Evans
Duchene
P1
54.0%
54.5%
P2
50.9%
54.5%
P3
52.0%
53.4%
OT
46.5%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OT | 01:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 00:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 12:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |