Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.8%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs McCarron 52.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 89.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 65.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Duchene
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Duchene
McCarron
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
0
Duchene
McCarron
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
4
Duchene
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
53.1% (672)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
18.2% (11)
+42.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
53.7% (205)
-37.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +42.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Duchene
McCarron
Home
51.6% (182)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.2% (201)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Duchene
McCarron
P1
49.6%
56.5%
P2
56.2%
53.2%
P3
48.6%
49.0%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |