Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs McCarron 52.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 74.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Duchene
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Duchene
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
54.5% (618)
+2.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
42.1% (19)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
35.3% (34)
-13.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
Duchene
McCarron
Home
56.6% (318)
52.2% (339)
Away
56.4% (319)
54.2% (332)
By Period
Duchene
McCarron
P1
57.2%
53.5%
P2
55.1%
50.6%
P3
55.6%
55.9%
Final 5 min
47.9%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:12 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |