Matt Duchene vs Michael McCarron
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs McCarron 52.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 79.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Duchene
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Duchene
McCarron
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
0
Duchene
McCarron
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
8
Duchene
McCarron
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
3
Duchene
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
53.4% (2,901)
+0.5%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
45.3% (86)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
50.5% (463)
-1.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
Home / Away
Duchene
McCarron
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
53.3% (1,754)
By Period
Duchene
McCarron
P1
54.5%
53.9%
P2
54.5%
52.5%
P3
53.4%
52.0%
OT
56.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:12 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |