Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs McCarron 54.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 65.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Duchene
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Duchene
McCarron
Last 6: Duchene 2-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
4
Duchene
McCarron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Duchene
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
54.2% (756)
-1.2%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
55.6% (9)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
55.1% (158)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Duchene
McCarron
Home
54.9% (408)
54.6% (445)
Away
50.0% (432)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Duchene
McCarron
P1
52.5%
53.6%
P2
51.7%
55.6%
P3
53.6%
53.7%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |