Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Granlund 47.0% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.5%
Defensive zone
Granlund 66.6%
Neutral zone
Granlund 51.6%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Duchene
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Duchene
Granlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Granlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
46.7% (885)
+9.8%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
44.9% (69)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
49.0% (98)
-26.8%
On penalty kill, Granlund has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Granlund is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Duchene
Granlund
Home
56.6% (318)
51.1% (495)
Away
56.4% (319)
42.9% (557)
By Period
Duchene
Granlund
P1
57.2%
49.9%
P2
55.1%
46.4%
P3
55.6%
44.3%
OT
81.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |