Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Granlund 48.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.7%
Defensive zone
Granlund 60.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 56.5%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Duchene
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Duchene
Granlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Granlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
48.7% (446)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
56.6% (99)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
31.1% (61)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Granlund has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Granlund is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Duchene
Granlund
Home
51.6% (182)
53.3% (255)
Away
52.2% (201)
44.4% (351)
By Period
Duchene
Granlund
P1
49.6%
51.3%
P2
56.2%
48.8%
P3
48.6%
44.4%
OT
60.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |