Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Frost 51.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 72.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Duchene
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Frost
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
50.3% (825)
+2.7%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
54.9% (204)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
50.0% (4)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Duchene
Frost
Home
54.9% (408)
50.7% (489)
Away
50.0% (432)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Duchene
Frost
P1
52.5%
53.6%
P2
51.7%
47.8%
P3
53.6%
52.0%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |