Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Frost 50.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 78.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 69.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Duchene
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Frost
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
49.4% (3,598)
+4.5%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
55.5% (625)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
52.8% (36)
-3.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Duchene
Frost
Home
55.6% (6,411)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Duchene
Frost
P1
54.5%
50.8%
P2
54.5%
51.1%
P3
53.4%
48.5%
OT
56.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |