Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Frost 55.7% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 51.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Duchene
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Duchene
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
54.9% (701)
-3.7%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
60.8% (166)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
100.0% (5)
-83.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Duchene
Frost
Home
51.6% (182)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.2% (201)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Duchene
Frost
P1
49.6%
58.9%
P2
56.2%
55.3%
P3
48.6%
54.0%
OT
60.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |