Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 91.8%
91.8%
8.2%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Duchene
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
55.2% (625)
-1.3%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
57.1% (7)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
38.2% (220)
+61.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +61.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
54.9% (113)
53.7% (445)
Away
51.4% (146)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
54.9%
48.8%
P2
52.7%
49.3%
P3
51.9%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
60.6%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |