Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Dowd 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 87.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Duchene
Dowd
Last 9: Duchene 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Duchene
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
52.2% (835)
+0.8%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
60.0% (10)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
44.0% (350)
-0.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
54.9% (408)
51.5% (619)
Away
50.0% (432)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
52.5%
51.7%
P2
51.7%
51.6%
P3
53.6%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
53.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |