Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Duchene
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
51.7% (644)
-0.5%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
0.0% (2)
+60.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
41.6% (221)
-24.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +60.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
51.6% (182)
48.6% (451)
Away
52.2% (201)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
49.6%
49.1%
P2
56.2%
47.3%
P3
48.6%
51.4%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |