Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Dowd 48.3% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 72.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 95.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 71.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Duchene
Dowd
Last 7: Duchene 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Duchene
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Duchene
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
49.2% (778)
+7.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
58.3% (12)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.0% (234)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
56.6% (318)
46.3% (492)
Away
56.4% (319)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
57.2%
49.1%
P2
55.1%
48.2%
P3
55.6%
46.9%
OT
81.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
47.9%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |