Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.2%). Duchene wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.0% vs Zacha 51.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 61.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 54.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Duchene
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (177)
53.7% (497)
-2.3%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
54.8% (84)
+20.2%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
37.5% (64)
-17.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Duchene is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Duchene shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zacha
Home
48.8% (41)
51.0% (335)
Away
52.3% (149)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Duchene
Zacha
P1
47.6%
60.0%
P2
62.3%
48.1%
P3
46.2%
48.8%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.6%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |