Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Zacha 51.7% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 71.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 55.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Duchene
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
53.3% (646)
-2.1%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
53.0% (100)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
38.9% (72)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zacha
Home
51.6% (182)
51.7% (410)
Away
52.2% (201)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Duchene
Zacha
P1
49.6%
57.7%
P2
56.2%
48.9%
P3
48.6%
50.2%
OT
60.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |