Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rakell on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Rakell 47.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 70.9%
Defensive zone
Rakell 54.1%
Neutral zone
Rakell 57.1%
Result
Rickard Rakell favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Duchene
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Duchene
Rakell
Last 6: Duchene 2-4 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
1
4
Duchene
Rakell
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Rakell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,112)
44.0% (159)
+8.6%
Power Play
56.0% (193)
53.1% (64)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
50.0% (2)
-1.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Duchene shoots left. Rakell is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Duchene
Rakell
Home
55.7% (652)
45.2% (157)
Away
50.4% (702)
49.3% (69)
By Period
Duchene
Rakell
P1
51.4%
50.0%
P2
53.9%
40.5%
P3
53.3%
50.8%
OT
55.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:23 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |