Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.3%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.0% vs Thomas 52.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 56.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 55.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (177)
50.1% (539)
+1.3%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
64.0% (86)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
54.0% (100)
-34.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +34.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (69).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
48.8% (41)
52.0% (373)
Away
52.3% (149)
52.6% (352)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
47.6%
50.0%
P2
62.3%
55.3%
P3
46.2%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
51.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.6%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |