Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.9%). Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Thomas 52.7% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.2%
Defensive zone
Thomas 79.9%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Thomas
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
53.6% (924)
+0.3%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
55.2% (181)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.0% (116)
+56.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
54.9% (113)
53.6% (606)
Away
51.4% (146)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
54.9%
48.2%
P2
52.7%
55.3%
P3
51.9%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
60.6%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.9%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |