Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Thomas 51.6% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 66.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Duchene
Thomas
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
2
Duchene
Thomas
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
5
Duchene
Thomas
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
5
Duchene
Thomas
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
51.1% (5,350)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
55.8% (921)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
49.9% (691)
-0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,919).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
55.6% (6,411)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
54.5%
50.6%
P2
54.5%
52.9%
P3
53.4%
50.8%
OT
56.3%
59.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 14, 2024 | OT | 02:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 16, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2023 | OT | 00:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |