Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Thomas 52.9% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.5%
Defensive zone
Thomas 50.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Duchene
Thomas
Last 8: Duchene 5-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
53.2% (1,166)
+3.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.9% (262)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
48.4% (221)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
56.6% (318)
51.6% (830)
Away
56.4% (319)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
57.2%
52.7%
P2
55.1%
55.6%
P3
55.6%
50.6%
OT
81.3%
61.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
56.5%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 16, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2023 | OT | 00:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 12, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |