Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.9%). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Thomas 51.7% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 56.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 59.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Duchene
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Duchene
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
50.1% (615)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
62.2% (98)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
52.6% (114)
-35.9%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +35.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thomas
Home
51.6% (182)
51.9% (374)
Away
52.2% (201)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Duchene
Thomas
P1
49.6%
49.2%
P2
56.2%
55.3%
P3
48.6%
50.6%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |