Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 77.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (319)
55.3% (815)
-3.9%
Power Play
61.5% (52)
58.0% (219)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
49.2% (124)
-32.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
52.3% (176)
55.8% (579)
Away
52.2% (201)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
57.5%
P2
56.9%
54.7%
P3
48.6%
54.1%
OT
60.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.3%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |