Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 30 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 56-56 in 112 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
56
-
56
(112 meetings)
56
56
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
30
21
Duchene
O'Reilly
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
22
Duchene
O'Reilly
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
18
13
Duchene
O'Reilly
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
58.8% (3,445)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
51.4% (2,811)
-2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
55.6% (6,411)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
54.5%
55.6%
P2
54.5%
57.0%
P3
53.4%
55.1%
OT
56.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |