Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 9: Duchene 6-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Duchene
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
56.2% (983)
-3.2%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
55.5% (254)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
52.0% (102)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
54.9% (408)
56.2% (697)
Away
50.0% (432)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
54.5%
P2
51.7%
55.5%
P3
53.6%
57.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |