Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 7: Duchene 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Duchene
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Duchene
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
55.0% (1,084)
+1.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.8% (303)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
40.3% (149)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
56.6% (318)
54.8% (759)
Away
56.4% (319)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
57.2%
55.3%
P2
55.1%
51.9%
P3
55.6%
54.2%
OT
81.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |