Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 56.6%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.3% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 87.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 6: Duchene 5-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (579)
57.3% (1,073)
-1.3%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
58.5% (258)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
50.7% (225)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
54.9% (375)
59.2% (765)
Away
57.5% (320)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
58.3%
55.6%
P2
56.7%
61.0%
P3
53.1%
52.3%
OT
62.5%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 00:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |