Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 62.7% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.3% vs Strome 47.7% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 66.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 86.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Duchene
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Strome
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Strome
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
Strome
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (579)
47.8% (813)
+8.2%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
56.4% (133)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
32.7% (98)
-7.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Duchene shoots left. Strome is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Duchene
Strome
Home
54.9% (375)
47.5% (535)
Away
57.5% (320)
47.5% (509)
By Period
Duchene
Strome
P1
58.3%
46.4%
P2
56.7%
48.3%
P3
53.1%
47.9%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 1 | 01:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |