Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Strome 44.6% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 29-15 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 95.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 91.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 95.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 94.2%
94.2%
5.8%
Duchene
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
15
(44 meetings)
29
15
Duchene
Strome
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
11
7
Duchene
Strome
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
5
Duchene
Strome
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
12
3
Duchene
Strome
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
44.1% (6,839)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
49.3% (854)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
41.5% (410)
+7.6%
On even strength, Duchene has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Home / Away
Duchene
Strome
Home
55.6% (6,411)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
Duchene
Strome
P1
54.5%
44.0%
P2
54.5%
45.3%
P3
53.4%
44.3%
OT
56.3%
46.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 12, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |