Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.4%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 59.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Duchene
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Duchene
Reinhart
Last 6: Duchene 3-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Reinhart
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Duchene
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
44.6% (345)
+11.9%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
43.3% (97)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.2% (88)
-21.0%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Duchene
Reinhart
Home
56.6% (318)
47.9% (267)
Away
56.4% (319)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Duchene
Reinhart
P1
57.2%
45.6%
P2
55.1%
42.0%
P3
55.6%
45.4%
OT
81.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |