Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Wright 45.1% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 66.0%
Defensive zone
Wright 59.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 65.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Duchene
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Duchene
Wright
Last 6: Duchene 2-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Duchene
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
2
Duchene
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
43.9% (758)
+9.1%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
50.7% (67)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
40.0% (5)
+3.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Duchene
Wright
Home
54.9% (408)
46.3% (406)
Away
50.0% (432)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Duchene
Wright
P1
52.5%
46.8%
P2
51.7%
42.6%
P3
53.6%
44.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:31 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Shane Wright |