Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Wright 43.3% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 54.3%
Defensive zone
Wright 52.9%
Neutral zone
Wright 50.1%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Duchene
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Duchene
Wright
Last 7: Duchene 3-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Duchene
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
2
Duchene
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
42.6% (1,318)
+11.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
45.8% (131)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
33.3% (6)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Duchene
Wright
Home
55.6% (6,411)
44.2% (746)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Duchene
Wright
P1
54.5%
44.4%
P2
54.5%
40.7%
P3
53.4%
44.0%
OT
56.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:31 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Shane Wright |