Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Blueger on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Blueger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Blueger 50.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.2%
Defensive zone
Blueger 71.1%
Neutral zone
Blueger 53.3%
Result
Teddy Blueger favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Duchene
Blueger
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Duchene
Blueger
Last 8: Duchene 1-7 Blueger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Blueger
1
2
Duchene
Blueger
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blueger
0
4
Duchene
Blueger
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blueger
0
2
Duchene
Blueger
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Blueger
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
53.3% (745)
-0.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
45.5% (11)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
41.7% (259)
+2.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blueger shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Blueger is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (739).
Home / Away
Duchene
Blueger
Home
54.9% (408)
53.4% (504)
Away
50.0% (432)
47.2% (511)
By Period
Duchene
Blueger
P1
52.5%
46.6%
P2
51.7%
53.0%
P3
53.6%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Blueger
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Teddy Blueger |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |