Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Blueger on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Blueger 48.1% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.5%
Defensive zone
Blueger 71.8%
Neutral zone
Blueger 51.7%
Result
Teddy Blueger favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Duchene
Blueger
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Duchene
Blueger
Last 7: Duchene 4-3 Blueger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Blueger
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blueger
2
3
Duchene
Blueger
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Blueger
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
50.2% (223)
+1.0%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
62.5% (8)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
31.9% (47)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Blueger has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blueger shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Blueger is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Home / Away
Duchene
Blueger
Home
51.6% (182)
50.0% (192)
Away
52.2% (201)
41.9% (86)
By Period
Duchene
Blueger
P1
49.6%
46.2%
P2
56.2%
51.5%
P3
48.6%
43.2%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Blueger
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |