Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Hertl 57.1% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Hertl
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Duchene
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (319)
58.0% (816)
-6.6%
Power Play
61.5% (52)
56.5% (260)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
62.9% (35)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
52.3% (176)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.2% (201)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
49.6%
51.4%
P2
56.9%
64.1%
P3
48.6%
58.5%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.3%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |