Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.2%). Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Hertl 54.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 28-21 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
21
(49 meetings)
28
21
Duchene
Hertl
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
7
Duchene
Hertl
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
8
Duchene
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
11
6
Duchene
Hertl
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
53.8% (8,268)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
46.3% (806)
+2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
55.6% (6,411)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
54.5%
53.6%
P2
54.5%
54.1%
P3
53.4%
55.3%
OT
56.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 00:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |