Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 81.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Duchene
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
51.6% (1,084)
-4.7%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
61.0% (246)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
44.1% (136)
+55.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +55.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
58.4% (125)
55.2% (696)
Away
48.4% (95)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
56.9%
55.4%
P2
52.5%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
48.9%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |