Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 70.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Duchene
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
54.1% (717)
-1.1%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
61.9% (210)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
58.1% (31)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
54.9% (408)
58.1% (492)
Away
50.0% (432)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
52.5%
57.1%
P2
51.7%
54.0%
P3
53.6%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |