Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Duchene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Duchene
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Duchene
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
54.1% (1,117)
-0.2%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
59.8% (296)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
+65.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +65.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Duchene shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hertl
Home
54.9% (113)
54.3% (709)
Away
51.4% (146)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Duchene
Hertl
P1
54.9%
51.6%
P2
52.7%
53.6%
P3
51.9%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |