Matty Beniers vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.9%
Defensive zone
Beniers 55.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Beniers
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Beniers
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
0
Beniers
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Beniers
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
50.0% (992)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
64.9% (148)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Beniers is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Beniers shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Beniers
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (460)
53.3% (591)
Away
46.0% (441)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Beniers
MacKinnon
P1
48.4%
49.9%
P2
51.1%
53.2%
P3
47.8%
50.8%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |