Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 67.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Beniers
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Beniers
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
54.6% (271)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Beniers
Sturm
Home
52.4% (460)
53.0% (168)
Away
46.0% (441)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Beniers
Sturm
P1
48.4%
58.2%
P2
51.1%
53.2%
P3
47.8%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |