Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 42.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.1%
15.9%
84.1%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 5: Beniers 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
0
Beniers
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
0
Beniers
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (879)
56.1% (690)
-13.8%
Power Play
40.3% (72)
64.6% (96)
-24.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
45.9% (109)
-1.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
43.8% (495)
58.3% (408)
Away
40.5% (474)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
43.3%
57.7%
P2
45.6%
54.8%
P3
38.2%
55.2%
OT
36.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
42.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 10:54 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 04:26 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |