Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 80.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 85.6%
14.4%
85.6%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
14
(33 meetings)
19
14
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 10: Beniers 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
8
4
Beniers
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
7
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (3,796)
56.2% (15,260)
-9.6%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
58.8% (3,445)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
51.4% (2,811)
-10.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,820).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (2,195)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
44.2% (2,072)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
47.4%
55.6%
P2
47.1%
57.0%
P3
45.7%
55.1%
OT
34.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |