Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 47.8% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 75.9%
Defensive zone
Beniers 81.5%
Neutral zone
Beniers 74.6%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 8: Beniers 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Beniers
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (1,050)
56.2% (983)
-7.9%
Power Play
42.9% (105)
55.5% (254)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (39)
52.0% (102)
-8.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
48.7% (630)
56.2% (697)
Away
46.5% (564)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
49.2%
54.5%
P2
45.0%
55.5%
P3
49.3%
57.1%
OT
22.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |