Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 10: Beniers 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
55.4% (826)
-6.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
57.9% (221)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
50.4% (129)
-0.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (460)
55.8% (579)
Away
46.0% (441)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
57.7%
P2
51.1%
54.8%
P3
47.8%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |