Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.2% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 10: Beniers 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
1
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (994)
55.6% (926)
-7.9%
Power Play
53.3% (45)
56.3% (247)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
50.3% (169)
+1.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
51.9% (543)
55.5% (656)
Away
44.0% (529)
54.7% (686)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
47.3%
56.9%
P2
51.3%
55.1%
P3
44.8%
53.8%
OT
70.0%
48.3%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
42.0%▬
41.5%
48.0%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
53.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |