Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 47.6% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 91.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.4%
15.6%
84.4%
Beniers
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Beniers
O'Reilly
Last 9: Beniers 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
0
Beniers
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Beniers
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
0
Beniers
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (945)
55.0% (1,084)
-7.7%
Power Play
51.7% (145)
56.8% (303)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
23.8% (21)
40.3% (149)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Beniers is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Beniers shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Beniers
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (565)
54.8% (759)
Away
45.2% (546)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Beniers
O'Reilly
P1
48.0%
55.3%
P2
49.0%
51.9%
P3
46.5%
54.2%
OT
23.5%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |