Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Novak 43.4% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 75.0%
Defensive zone
Novak 57.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 60.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Beniers
Novak
Last 6: Beniers 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Beniers
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Beniers
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
41.4% (379)
+7.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
46.9% (32)
+11.4%
On power play, Beniers has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
52.4% (460)
42.6% (195)
Away
46.0% (441)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
48.4%
42.4%
P2
51.1%
39.2%
P3
47.8%
44.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |