Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.2% vs Novak 44.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 74.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 61.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Beniers
Novak
Last 6: Beniers 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Beniers
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Beniers
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (647)
41.7% (206)
+7.1%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
52.6% (19)
+1.2%
On even strength, Beniers has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (472).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
52.7% (357)
44.9% (118)
Away
45.4% (348)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
47.9%
41.5%
P2
51.9%
44.0%
P3
46.8%
42.0%
Final 5 min
42.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
64.0%▲
51.0%
49.1%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |