Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.7% vs Novak 43.3% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 72.0%
Defensive zone
Beniers 57.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Beniers
Novak
Last 10: Beniers 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Beniers
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
2
Beniers
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Beniers
Novak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (3,796)
42.1% (1,539)
+4.5%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
51.9% (133)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
50.0% (2)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,820).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
48.9% (2,195)
45.3% (814)
Away
44.2% (2,072)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
47.4%
43.9%
P2
47.1%
42.8%
P3
45.7%
41.7%
OT
34.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 17:41 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |