Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 42.9% vs Novak 45.6% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 56.0%
Defensive zone
Beniers 60.9%
Neutral zone
Beniers 53.6%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Beniers
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Beniers
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Beniers
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Beniers
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (879)
43.8% (384)
-1.5%
Power Play
40.3% (72)
58.8% (17)
-18.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
100.0% (1)
-55.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Beniers is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Beniers shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Beniers
Novak
Home
43.8% (495)
46.5% (202)
Away
40.5% (474)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Beniers
Novak
P1
43.3%
49.2%
P2
45.6%
44.2%
P3
38.2%
40.0%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.3%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
42.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |